BOBI, HIS SUPPORTERS & THE BASIC LAWS OF HUMAN STUPIDITY

Taken last week while going for prayers

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK.

The stupidity of the general public and their gullibility is half the reason President Museveni has led Uganda for over 35 years, but the current opposition seems to be the joke of the century. Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine was reportedly supposed to be the “real” messiah that was required in order to remove Museveni from power last year. But his politics has so far proven to be an unmitigated disaster.

In Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, economic historian Carlo Cipolla, presented 5 axioms on how stupid people attain power and endanger us. He inferred that the numbers of stupid individuals are underestimated, enabling them to emerge at inopportune times, consistently thwarting important endeavours.

To help us analyse, let’s look at Cipolla’s 5 Laws:

Law1: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

Law 2: The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Law 3: A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

Law 4: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people infallibly turns out to be a costly mistake.

Law 5: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.

Many Nupians have a loose relationship with facts. Their disregard for facts and reasoning is sometimes not a matter of stupidity or lack of education. For example, a lot of educated Nupians believed that Bobi was endorsed by the USA president during the 2020-21 elections because of a fake video that was circulating then. A lot of educated Nupians believed that elections could remove Museveni from power.

It’s not just misinformation gained from too many hours listening to Fred Lumbuye and other NUP bloggers, either, because correcting the falsehoods doesn’t change their opinions. For example, a lot of them still believe that NUP is a young party, yet it was founded in 2004.

Their stupidity equates emotion with logic. For instance, they emotionally feel Besigye is bad and always against Bobi, so anything that touches, in any way, his ideas, is evil and they’re therefore free to attack without having a single neuron contemplate the topic at hand. Bobi, himself, didn’t support the Redcard front, a pressure group meant to sell defiance after the elections, simply because the idea was being chaired by Besigye. He wants to cause a loss to Besigye and FDC, yet it generally affects all Ugandans.

Even if one felt that Besigye wasn’t doing enough to remove Museveni, surely Bobi couldn’t have been the obvious choice to replace either Museveni or Besigye for an intelligent population. Given a summary of Bobi’s choices, one cannot claim that he makes good decisions. He has become ” the best gift Baganda have ever given Museveni “, according to one Mukiiga mate of mine on UAH. Weakening Besigye made his standing in Museveni’s circles go through the roof.

As one German pastor, Dietrich Bonhoeffer, once wrote, ‘’the ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves its children.” He used to speak out against Hitler before and after he was imprisoned. He argued that stupidity, not malice, was the root of German’s problems, and he believed that evil and malice can be exposed and prevented, but stupidity is a difficult thing to fight.

Nupians call anyone who dares to suggest some corruption mitigation in NUP a ” mole”. To play devil’s advocate, the issues raised in the newspapers recently, especially extortion of MPs by Bobi and other NUP leaders, are one of critical judgement. When you think about it, though, corruption at NUP headquarters has been a common phenomenon since Bobi took over from Kibalama. The difference, of course, lies in the availability of evidence.

Nupians believe that it’s okay for their party to take billions from Interparty Organization for Dialogue-IPOD but not attend meetings –its more like a prostitute who takes a client’s money but doesn’t provide the services paid. Bobi’s motivation seems to be basically money and prestige.

The minimal requirement for a discussion is coherence and respect. A lot of Nupians would discuss Bobi even when the original poster is talking about religion or diabetes. When it comes to a total lack of courtesy, a surplus of rudeness, blackmail, propaganda, Bobi’s supporters are the champions. They call whoever criticises their leader a ‘hater’ –its difficult for them to differentiate between objective criticism and hatred. American philosopher Elbert Hubbard said, “to avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing and be nothing.”

To me being stupid does not necessarily mean you’re not intelligent, you’re just making unintelligent decisions. For example, spending money on hair when you have no food at home, that is stupidity to me. You’re intelligent enough to know that you have to buy groceries, but you opt for doing your hair instead. So yes, an intelligent person can be stupid. Some of our leaders are an example of this. Also, we have to remember that intelligence is relative. Whilst you might be the smartest person when you’re with your friends, you can be the least smart when you’re with other people.

I think the reason why there are smart and stupid people is because smart people know that they’re intelligent whereas stupid people don’t. Stupid people are stupid because they don’t want to use their intelligence not because there’s something wrong in their heads.

If Bobi steps down as NUP leader, and a delegates’ conference is organised for NUP to choose another leader, he might be able to stop the bleeding of the party. But he won’t because he will never admit that he is weakening the opposition every passing day, and on top of that he is weak, a show-off and just wants to coast for another 5 -10 years just like he coasted in music the previous 20 years, especially fighting childish wars with Bebe Cool. The man is a walking train wreck.

HOW BOBI DESTROYED BESIGYE AND FDC USING PROPAGANDA

Tweet against Erias Lukwago, the Lord Mayor

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK

There was a Chinese man called Sun Tzu, mainly known for writing the ‘Art of the War’. There’s a term in the book that he calls it a ‘lost agent’ – meaning someone you give or sell false information to, but you don’t reveal who you are – you work with him, you use him for manipulation and provocation, keeping him in the darker about your actual strategy. Basically, everything must work within safety limits. Does anybody sound familiar when it comes to NUP bloggers? Oh yes, It’s Fred Lumbuye and a few others. Some people were feeding them information, and the boys just shared it without any verifications.

Propaganda is used by authoritarian regimes to maintain political order and influence internal and foreign opinion. Between 2017 and 2020, I believe that some of the NUP bloggers were used to spread false information against the Kabaka of Buganda, Dr. Kiiza Besigye, Katikilo Peter Mayiga, FDC and several other people. Unfortunately, most of the millennials believed in the propaganda, thus, costing FDC politically.

Nearly thirty years ago, German’s Heidrun Abromeit pointed out that election campaigns are not about programs and policy statements, but hinge upon the sale of political slogans and images as if they were goods. That’s why I think it was a mistake by FDC to ignore NUP’s propaganda. The ability to manage public perception and image is a fundamental element to modern party politics.

One of the most famous slogans of the movement that swept the country was “Twebelelemu”(meaning ‘help yourselves’). It was an equivalent of the Arab spring slogan: ‘’Alsha’ab yuridu iskat alnizam”, Arabic for “The people want the fall of the regime”. Besigye falsely construed it to mean that Bobi Wine was asking his tribalmates, the Baganda, to support their own, and he wasn’t only corrected but attacked verbally and physically by Bobi’s supporters, which in the end bred a lot of tribals sentiments during the campaigns. So, the slogan ended up dividing people instead of uniting them.

An important slogan that has been chanted repeatedly by FDC activists for the last 20 years was “one People, one Ugandan,” had NUP supporters responding to it as ” Besigye ne Museveni bebamu ” meaning ” Besigye and Museveni are the same “.

During the campaigns, NUP’s team rested on a social media apparatus of information production, dissemination, and consumption. Almost every week, several bloggers made live videos and audios on Facebook and YouTube as ways of consuming and practicing the Party’s propaganda materials.

Within this network of social control, some sympathetic newspapersradio stations and TVs acted as the vehicles for circulating information, while word of the mouth (mainly street talk) offered a more durable, expansive format to transfer political propaganda into homes, workplaces, and institutions.

The success or otherwise of the NUP propaganda depended as much on the vagaries of the FDC internal problems as well as on the more familiar cast of characters generating content. For instance, in 2017 FDC elected Patrick Oboi Amuriat (POA) its national president against Mugisha Muntu. The later decided to quit the party along with several MPs, which left the party exposed to attacks from its enemies. Muntu had made some statements referring to hidden ” moles ” within the party that had accused him of being a mole himself. Later, NUP bloggers capitalized on it to accuse FDC of having started the culture of accusing others of being moles.

POA’s former work in DP as Paul Ssemogerere ‘s Chief campaigner in Teso didn’t save him from NUP attacks either. They accused him of being a lapdog of Besigye. Recently, the NUP deputy spokesperson, Alex Mufumbira, has accused him of being a comedian during campaigns by smearing powder in his face, and walking without shoes, yet for them they faced real bullets. For the record, POA was the most arrested presidential candidate during the 2020-21 elections, but his sabotages rarely made headlines compared to Bobi.

BOBI’S DIRECT CONTRIBUTION

Bobi personally put Besigye through the ringer. The supporters were just background noise—wallpaper. He basically hit the bull’s eye through various statements he made in different forums during the 2020-21 campaigns.

By 2020, almost every Ugandan who had access to social media had been convinced that Besigye had been working for Museveni since 2001 when he first stood against him. To cite just one example, around 2019, Bobi was hosted by Patrick Kamara on NTV, and he’s quoted saying, ” Other people’s petrol stations are opening but, for me, my shows were stopped. I can’t sing anymore “. He was literally referring to Besigye’s petrol station at Nsambya that he franchises from Total. A few days later, Hon. Beti Nambooze was quoted by the daily Monitor reminding people that Bobi’s petrol stations in Gomba were also still operating. Nambooze hadn’t yet joined NUP then.

Up to now, the NUP leadership has no tolerance for the existence of another pressure group, and it has committed itself to eradicating the democratic aspirations the newly formed PFT embodies, by deploying propaganda and leveraging its controlled and allied social media outlets.

It should scarcely surprise us, therefore, that soon after Bobi was recently blocked from crowding the streets in Mbale on his way to a radio station, he said that some people hold rallies (in reference to Besigye and PFT) while he’s being stopped.

Large quantities of propaganda have been produced against the Lord Mayor, Erias Lukwago, and his Deputy, to further the NUP’s latest political campaigns and ideological goals. Lukwago has always ignored their propaganda, but Nyanjura Doreen couldn’t ignore the fake tweet that was going around during the Makerere guild campaigns, claiming that he had asked voters to either vote for FDC’s Obed Kamulegeya or the NRM candidate.

The propaganda against Besigye and FDC was effective but the young people spreading it, were limited by their lack of organization and inexperience. For example, they could make fake videos and photos placing Besigye in Statehouse with Museveni, when during that time frame, he was out of the country.

The bottom line is that propaganda in our politics is now here to stay. Any party or politician who ignores it, will sink to deeper levels. NUP will never dissociate itself from propaganda because that’s what sold them to Ugandans. So, expect more fake news, fake videos, e.t.c, as long as NUP is still dominating our opposition politics.

OK, that will be £2000 for this piece, or you can continue believing in NUP propaganda.Lol!

Kivumbi has been disappointing!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

Hon.Muwanga Kivumbi’s view of political pressure groups is detached and passionate, because he seems to wrongly think that Bobi is everything. He seems to underestimate the feelings of majority of Ugandans – they want change of leadership in the country. They don’t care who will bring this change. If tomorrow, Besigye or anybody, brings this change, they will be thrilled and start hoping again. But Mr. Kivumbi seems to look at NUP/Bobi in the same way some regarded the Roman Empire as superior to Christianity, and saw its fall as retrogression, one hastened by the growth of Christianity.

Calling yourself the biggest opposition party (because of the numbers in parliament) doesn’t necessarily make you opposition or give you the right to decide for whoever wants to oppose Museveni – that is utterly ridiculous, especially when you continue to repudiate everything opposition stands for and show no need for all forces of change to work together.

Ugandans are with anybody that SINCERELY stands up to be counted, and if Dr.Besigye and his team mean business, they will ultimately welcome the Red-card- Front. Let FDC, JEEMA, and others continue working with those willing to join them and ignore NUP for now. Those people who preach to us that every move in opposition must go through NUP are obstructionists.

Bobi and his group were consulted before the launch of the Red Front, but they don’t want to be part of it, for reasons best known to themselves. What the NUP leaders say and do is a mismatch. Its like a man telling you, ‘I won’t attend your daughter’s wedding though she has my support, but your daughter stinks, she’s old, and she’s cheaper than mine’s………’’, Sincerely, what kind of support is that? Nze abo ba guy bansobeladaaaaaaaaaa!

NUP propaganda against PFT won’t survive for so long!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK

All human beings complain when they are failing. There’s nothing unhuman about that. It’s easy to complain to the public that Besigye and others formed a pressure group to bring down NUP, but it will become a big challenge to explain to people when the People’s Front for Transition (PFT) is involved in activities that make President Museveni uncomfortable. The NUP leaders can go away with such a complaint in the short term because some people still believe in them, but people will start asking questions in the long term, obviously, depending on the progress of the PFT. My feeling is that PFT will succeed as they have already achieved their ‘unwritten’ objective,i.e. exposing NUP for what they really are – an organisation against anybody who wants to antagonise Museveni’s leadership.

Maslow in his 1954 book talked about complaining in terms of grumbles. He noted that when people get to the being-level of experience then your grumbles go meta. They become meta-grumbles. Meta-grumbles are grumbles about injustice, lack of beauty, need for more accurate knowledge, need for more profound meaning and meaningful, the need to see better life for everyone in your country— that kind of thing. It is not grumbling about money, bickering about old politicians leading the struggle (which is age discrimination, by the way), or fussing about Besigye standing for presidency four times.

High level grumbles indicate that a person has moved to the being-level of experience and beginning to live a self-actualizing life. By contrast, low level grumbles typically indicate that you are still struggling to meet the basic needs of life, and it’s easy for a Rubongoya to take advantage of you,I.e. making you believe that Besigye is your enemy when, actually, Besigye is trying to help you. Its easy to believe that Bobi Wine got his car from his ‘friends’ in diaspora without asking further questions. Its easy to just enjoy Nubian Ali’s wedding videos without asking where he got the money from to do such a massive wedding after 6 months in prison. Its easy to believe that Male Mabilizi is against Bobi without asking yourself why the state usually takes over his cases against Bobi.

I know common sense is a dangerous word to use in public, but let’s think about this for a moment. Besigye is now 65 years old — he will be nearly 70 years old in 2026. His wife has been bringing in an income of not less than $10,000 a month for the last 9 years. It means the Besigyes are rich by any standards, and can afford a luxurious life, including, a splendid wife’s birthday party in South Africa if he wishes. But Besigye isn’t sitting down to enjoy their money, why? He has Uganda at heart.

 Despite his age, he is always leading from the front — doing whatever he can to possibly remove Museveni from power or make him uncomfortable. He has never shied away from a meta- cause. And instead of supporting him, the NUP leaders send their ‘dogs’ after him.

KUDOS TO FDC AND GOOD LUCK TO CHAMELEON!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK.

FDC must, arguably, be the most civilised party in Uganda. I’m surprised most of their members aren’t making a big deal out of Jose Chameleon’s defection to NRM, as NUP members did with Owekitibwa Joyce Ssebugwawo’s. I remember warning them (NUPs) at the time — that there are a lot of NUPs sitting on the fences just waiting for the right time to cross, but as usual, they only concentrated on mindlessly celebrating FDC problems – Christmas had somehow come so early for them.

For the record, Jose Chameleon, like the former 10 DP MPs, officially joined NUP in August 2020. He was denied a chance to stand as NUP candidate for Kampala Lord Mayorship this month last year, and he has presumably left NUP in the same month this year.  It means he has been a NUP member for, at least, 1 year, as long as Hon. Beti Nambooze and others, have.

Going by the reasoning of some NUP members I have so far interacted with, they seem to think that one only becomes a member of the party by word of the mouth, which isn’t true. Political parties’ membership aren’t like converting to another religion, or supporting a football club, where I’m a Chelsea fan but I don’t have a Chelsea FC membership card. One has to register and get a membership card to be a recognised member of the party, which Jose Chameleon did. Otherwise, just saying that you support a certain party, or donate to it, or you have it at heart, it doesn’t make you a member. I’m sure Jose hasn’t yet officially joined NRM party because I didn’t see him getting the NRM card while getting a car. So, technically speaking, Jose is still a NUP member till he’s officially expelled by his party, or when he gets a NRM card.

Moving forward, I request NUP members to stop thinking that they have brought anything special to the opposition politics. Whatever problems NUP is facing, FDC and other parties have faced them before. NUP, itself, isn’t anything special by any standards – you are just a doll party started in 2004 by Mr. Kibalama and others for reasons best known to themselves. So, its leadership should try and work with FDC and stop demonising Besigye. Just recently, Erias Lukwago  was nominated to become the FDC vice president in Buganda, but the messages I read on social media from NUPs were astounding. I don’t know why they think they must continue their wars with the FDC leadership,like, forever.

What NUPs must know is that today’s Italians aren’t Romans, today’s Greeks aren’t those of the 5th century BC, and today’s Chinese aren’t the ones who invented gunpowder and “rockets”. Same goes for the Egyptians, Aztecs, Mayas. What matters is who is on top of the heap NOW, and in Uganda’s case, its NRM and Museveni on top, and will do everything possible to keep the opposition in a bogus state it is now.

TRIBALISM WAS A STAND-OUT FACTOR IN BUGANDA( 2020-21 ELECTIONS)

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK

Many Ugandans are tribalists –that is a fact. Unfortunately, we are also denialists who refuse to accept and address the matter openly, frankly, and honestly. We keep sweeping it under the carpet hoping that it will disappear on its own. Ethnicity has always been a major political factor in almost all of Africa.

Yes, we have many governance challenges as a country, and that cannot be denied. But truth be told, the recently concluded 2020-21 elections were not mostly about service delivery issues, but it was directed at the current sitting President mostly because of his ethnicity. Most people who voted for Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, didn’t necessarily saw him as a presidential material but someone who’s a fellow Muganda. Yes, there were a few that voted him as a protest against the elites and bad governance in the country. I remember getting a lot of heat from fellow Baganda for not supporting him, and indeed, I saw no reason to support him for presidency, because I’m not a tribalist when it comes to national issues.

Approximately 17% of the Uganda population are Baganda by tribe. Banyankole, Museveni’s tribe, are about 9%. The most spoken language in Uganda is Luganda. So, logic will tell you that based on the fact that Baganda are the majority most things will come from them. Even political revolutions have always started in Buganda before they spread elsewhere. Baganda are proud of their traditions and often this is confused for being arrogant or stubborn, but this is not the case. A simple observation in all the countries that I have visited is that the dominant people of that country exhibit the same characteristics as the Baganda.

The Baganda voters have shown persistent preferences against Museveni. Besigye has been the Baganda voters’ preferred candidate in previous elections, and he saw polls as the catalyst for a political crisis, or even a popular uprising. With Besigye, their vote was more of a protest vote than anything else, though so many saw him as, undoubtedly, a presidential material, too – someone capable of managing a post-Museveni Uganda.

However, because of Besigye’s ethnicity, I believe, FDC has never had more than 5 MPs in Buganda though they have reasonably done well in other regions. In Buganda, FDC had 5 MPs in the last Parliament, it now has 4. The FDC won 32 parliamentary seats against 57 won by the National Unity Platform-NUP.

Basically, the parliamentary opposition numbers changed but it doesn’t make any difference as the NRM retained its majority in the National Assembly, with 337 seats.

Buganda has always been a mixture of conflicts against the state. For instance, in 2009 security forces killed at least 40 people in riots sparked by a dispute over the traditional Buganda kingdom. In 2011 at least nine bystanders were shot dead during protests against inflation and bad governance. Security forces killed at least 54 civilians in November 2020. There’s always something going on – I expect some protests and deaths soon due to the Mailo land issue if it goes through in parliament.

Since 1996, the western region, on the other hand, has shown the strongest support for Museveni in terms of vote share, while his vote share has been lowest in the northern region. Museveni won the January 2021 poll with 58.4% while runner-up Bobi Wine,  got 35 per cent of the valid votes. Voter turnout was reported to be 59.4%, compared with 63% in 2016. In 2016, Besigye did about as well as Kyagulanyi did in 2021, garnering 35.6% of the vote, meaning the national opposition vote didn’t change in the general scheme of things. Museveni scored 1.03 million votes against Wine’s 1.8 million in Buganda. Wine’s National Unity Platform also won half of the 109 legislative seats in the kingdom.For the first time, the Baganda voted as a block for their own, just as the Banyankole have been doing for years.

In Feb 2021, Bobi withdraw the electoral petition, and said: ‘We are taking the case to the Court of the People’. But truth be said, people have not responded to any calls for anything from him. So, the way forward is for the opposition to go for solidarity blocks (in the short term) and then unity (in the long term). Unity cannot be achieved in the short term due to the damage done by Bobi’s novice statements in the last four years against fellow oppositionists. His supporters will, for some time, continue to fight anything associated with Besigye and others. For instance, the idea launched today, ‘THE FRONT’, cannot make sense to most NUPs yet it’s a good idea, because they think its an attempt to take the limelight away from their ‘weak’ leader.

As Karl Popper once said, ‘’there can be no human society without conflict:  such a society  would  be  a society not of friends but of ants. Even if it were attainable, there are human values of the greatest importance which would be destroyed by its attainment’’.

How Bobi Wine fractured Uganda’s opposition before and during the 2021 campaigns

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK.

There is no doubt that of all the artistic anti-Museveni, Kyagulanyi Sentamu aka Bobi Wine was one of the most outspoken and explicit in his songs. Therefore, the 2020-21 elections must have been life-altering for him and perhaps for his fans. However, I believe a man is not punished for the good he does, but for the evil he does, and I believe these are some of the mistakes Bobi made to weaken Uganda’s opposition. The main mission of any opposition leader in Uganda should be uniting all forces of change, and ambition is supposed to take a second position. Yet Bobi was fixated on his own success and ego, and all others were merely minions to achieving that grand design, therefore they didn’t count.

First of all, Bobi was a great deal more of a windbag, and less of an achiever. During the campaigns, he rarely outlined any alternative policy to the government. I could watch videos where he danced for a bit on one of his songs, then he would talk a lot of exciting stuff (often about himself) but not impactful. It was very hard to know what his ideas, which were always overstated and to some extent rhetorical, would have meant in practice.

Bobi’s biggest problem was his singular lack of gratitude to those who have been opposing Museveni for a long time, or at least his willingness to be a party to those that belittled them. While in Arua in 2018 campaigning for Kassiano Wadri, he remarked that FDC leaders are fighting for positions, they don’t want him to fight for himself; they want to fight for him. In an interview with Patrick Kamara (NTV), he insinuated that Besigye’s petrol stations were operating but he had been stopped from holding shows.

Let us remember that Napoleon, despite banning castrati from the Italian stage in the last years of the 18th century, was ‘ravished’ by the voice of the castrato Crescentini and arranged for him to come and live at his court in 1806. He made him a knight of the Order of the Iron Crown. So, who knows if Museveni will also later on find a way of compensating Bobi for closing his shows in Uganda, if he hasn’t already done so?

The idea that Bobi was handled and massaged to the top by powerful people in the regime to slice Dr.Kiiza Besigye’s popularity is widespread, beyond merely FDC propaganda. In fact I haven’t read a substantial debunking of that notion. Bobi, like a vulture sitting in a tree, was eyeballing every move made by Besigye and FDC since 2017. Couple this with the fact that Bobi and his elder brother, Nyanzi, were extremely chummy with president Museveni’s NRM and his brother, Salim Saleh, his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and former IGP, Kale Kayihura, before he expressed interest in standing for presidency. In fact, Gen. Tumukunde is on record ,while being hosted at capital Gang, insinuating that Bobi’s campaigns as MP were mainly financed by NRM people. Bobi, himself, endorsed NRM candidates on various occasions at the expense of opposition candidates.

One has to take Bobi’s occasional praise of Besigye with a grain of salt. This reminds me of his laudatory praise of him during a few press conferences before and after the elections, whilst at other times dismissing his success with statements, such as ‘“Don’t talk about democracy and stand four times and on the fifth time you say it doesn’t work, we believe it works’. It was 2019, and Bobi was speaking during an event in which the DP was signing a coalition agreement with Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Michael Mabike and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of Abed Bwanika.

In any case, apologists might be able to think up an excuse as to why Bobi didn’t mean what he said, or meant it in some kind of metaphysical sense, but it doesn’t take a Nazi to interpret Bobi’s words as an invitation for Ugandans to insult, belittle and stone Besigye. Bobi’s own self-aggrandizing propaganda has resonance with a dwindling band of hero-worshippers, led by activists such as Fred Lumbuye who has been based in Turkey till recently when he was allegedly deported back to Uganda.

Infact, he had plenty of indecent friends on and off social media throughout the campaigns, often notably unreasonable people like Eddie Mutwe, PengPeng, Sauda Madada, Koja Omugezi, Patricia Sewungu, Joel Senyonyi, e.t.c; and the picture they’ve left is consistent and, with all his weaknesses, not unappealing. He was certainly devious and sometimes dishonest. He didn’t seem to want ‘‘Besigyeist’’ around, and felt they were a corrupting influence that would ultimately upstage him.

Regardless of whether Bobi was a mole working for Museveni, he had effectively managed to weaken FDC and Besigye before the 2021 elections. His behavior seemed rather predatory  and spiteful towards other opposition leaders before and during the presidential campaigns, like, when he insinuated that Museveni had been standing against his ‘charlies’ (friends), and he was handling them differently. He fought with UPC over the red colour. He effectively put DP into comma after threatening to front NUP candidates against their candidates — so, most DP MPs, like, Hon. Nambooze, Mpuuga, defected to NUP to save their political careers.

Bobi was financially predatory – most people had to reportedly pay huge sums of money before they could be endorsed to stand on NUP ticket. We have all heard scurrilous stories about celebrities – and believed some of them – even if we would never make any such claims in public. But here most people were merely echoing what they thought had been established at NUP headquarters.

A lot more could be said, but let’s look at his most important achievement — my perspective (at the relative moment), he used music more effectively in campaigns compared to previous elections. Music can be hateful or prejudiced or anything else because of its content, but that’s about the piece, not the creator. People, especially in the central, fell in love with his music and started worshipping his politics. For instance, In March 2019, two of the popular songs, “Tulyambala Engule” (We Shall Wear the Crown) and “Kyarenga”, were performed at the election campaigns at Makerere and Kyambogo Universities. As a result, the elections at both Universities were won by people allied to the People Power movement.  In fact, at Makerere University, the NRM flag bearer, Osbert Alinda, polled a paltry 55 votes against the People Power candidates – the winner, Julius Katerega (3,922), and the first runner up, Joshua William Mukisa (3,365). Other songs that sold him were “Freedom” and “Tugambire ku Jennifer” (“Go tell Jennifer”).

“Tuliyambala Engule”, released in 2018, is based on a Christian hymn which promises Christians a crown of victory in the afterlife when their battle against Satan has been won. The song portrayed him as someone who certainly didn’t believe in any real political structure at all, or any authority, other than ‘the people’ and his own authority. In the song, Bobi Wine and other pop stars – Nubian Li (Ali Bukenya), Dr Hilderman (Hillary Kiyaga), King Saha (Mansur Ssemanda), Irene Namatovu, Irene Ntale, and Pastor Wilson Bugembe – list several problems that are prevalent in Uganda: oppression, indignity, sectarianism, corruption, violent state reprisal and political impunity.  Coincidentally, King Saha, Irene Namatovu and Pastor Wilson Bugembe had also featured in a 2015 song which was sponsored by President Museveni ahead of the 2016 Presidential elections. The trio continued supporting Museveni despite appearing in the ‘’Tuliyambala engule’’, which reinforces the belief that Bobi was also a ‘kiwanyi’ (fake).

If I can natter on for one more second, Pastor Wilson Bugembe sings the last verse of the song, cautioning the citizens to win the crown through peaceful means, not violence. “Do not fight,” he counsels, “All of you are God’s children /As Ugandans we are brothers and sisters.” He, indeed, continued to preach the same lines before and after elections, despite Bobi calling for protests before and after elections.

Bobi isn’t the first to compose a song based on the bible to fight political battles in Uganda. In the 1950s, activists such as Isaya Mukirane and his fellow fighters composed songs based on the Bible to denounce the oppression meted out to the Bakonzo and the Bamba people by the leadership of Toro Kingdom and the colonial government.

The song urges the youth to register for National Identity cards, commonly called ‘Ndagamuntu’, so that they can become eligible to vote. Unfortunately, the elections had the lowest voter turnout since the 2006 elections.

Besides the lyrics, the song’s political message is underscored by the reference to the inaugural speech made by Nelson Mandela when he was sworn in as democratic South Africa’s first president on 10th May, 1994. The most charitable interpretation is that he tried very much to portray himself as Uganda’s ‘Mandela’, somebody not seen before in our politics, which rightly made a lot of Besigye/ FDC supporters dislike him more, thus, leaving the opposition fractured up to today.

It is obvious to anyone with a functioning brain that Bobi is ill-equipped to deal with the myriad of problems facing the opposition. Their extremely toxic decisions have crippled and divided supporters. NUP’s having of 57 MPs hasn’t realistically changed the opposition because NRM remains dominant in parliament. For now, Besigye is generally quiet, mainly posting about Covid-19 and football. When the band music fades and the first shot is fired, things will hopefully change for the better. As Yogi Berra once said, this will be “déjà vu all over again.”

NUP is trying hard to sell Ssebugwawo as the alpha and Omega of FDC!

I have failed to understand why Ms.Joyce Sebugwawo isn’t discussed as Sebugwawo, but FDC? Was she the sole founder of FDC, or something? Does that mean that if one of the leaders of NUP OFFICIALLY joins Museveni, and it will happen, the whole of NUP are Museveni’s clowns?

I think a lot of people are unnecessarily blowing this out of proportion. Politicians cross to other parties or groups every now and then, and they have their own reasons People cross to other parties all the time, and it should not raise hailstorm. For instance, a lot of republicans quit the Republican party because of Trump, but the party is still surviving.  The problem is that nobody looks for the bigger story beneath the surface.

Beti Kamya, Eriya Kategeya, Dr. Matembe Miria, Mugisha Muntu, Beti Anywar ( Maama Mabira), Oddonga Otto, e.t.c, all quit FDC, but the party is still surviving.

When Sebugwawo says that she has accepted to serve under Museveni because of Bobi, why should people brush it off? Bobi used his popularity as a musician and fed Besigye to the wolves without any remorse. His attacks on Besigye put FDC and People Power/NUP in a pissing contest up to now, to the extent that a lot of people in opposition are, literally, fed up with the opposition.

According to FDC’s Harold Kaija, she wasn’t really a mole as in, like, Museveni’s mole for a long time. Her head was, apparently, turned after losing the elections in Lubaga. Bobi planted a candidate against her, and the loss was too much for her to take in.Museveni reached out to her after losing the elections. Harold and Besigye tried to talk her out of joining Museveni, then, but she was so angry about the loss.

What’s confusing is that she was, reportedly, among the few FDC leaders that openly supported Bobi in Kyadondo East by-election, instead of FDC’S Katinti. She also reportedly supported NRM’s Abubakar Kawalya, Nabilah Naggayi ‘s brother, for KCCA speakership.

According to the Nyanjula Doreen, Kampala Deputy Mayor, they were aware of her secret communications with Museveni, but they ignored it for the sake of unity in the party. I understand they are about 4-5 people who are moles but have remained in FDC.

Whether people accept it or not, the opposition will keep fragmenting as long as Bobi remains part of the equation

I believe because of the toxic environment intentionally created in the opposition; it has become easy for Museveni to recruit from opposition. Museveni has got skills (good and ugly) to deal with his opponents. He could probably turn a Ugandan “Pope” into a protestant right now.

Sebugwawo’s defection has definitely hurt FDC and Besigye. I have always seen her in pictures with Besigye, and I thought they were close. It looks like Museveni wants to get maama bear by attacking the cub.

MUSEVENI’S SUCCESOR WILL BE IN THE NEXT CABINET

Muhoozi, Museveni and Mbabazi

MUSEVENI’S SUCCESOR WILL BE IN THE NEXT CABINET

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

Uganda is volatile now in terms of its future. We are faced with the unknown. So, this is my small talk about the future. However, its only men with guns who are likely to make peace or decide transition.

Mr. Frank Gashumba reckons that Museveni will not relinquish power to anyone, and that he will die president of Uganda. He believes in the saying of an old Irish political philosopher, Edmund Burke, who once said, ‘those who have been intoxicated with power and benefitted from it, even if its for a year or a term, never willingly abandon it.’’

Personally, I beg to differ – I believe that Museveni will let someone else take over, and his next cabinet, or the one after, will reveal a lot in terms of his successor. Museveni is now an old man and age teaches one to do things when the timing is right. He has been up for a long time, now it is time to step down. St. Augustine stated, ‘to build a tower that will piece the clouds, lay first the foundations of humility’.

I pray that there is a transition to someone else soon because it will be quite catastrophic if Museveni dies in power — A power vacuum is always a bad thing. A lot of people do not want to talk about death, but death is a must for all living things. Death is a great leveler. Funerals are just there to remind us that we will not live forever.

AMAMA MBABAZI

Museveni has built a Roman Empire in Uganda such that it is difficult for an ‘outsider’ to take over from him. Constitutionally, in the event of an incumbents’ incapacitation, the vice president (VP) assumes office. So, whoever is going to be the next VP will most likely determine a lot about Uganda’s future. Here is my theory: Amaama Mbabazi will be made either VP or Prime Minister, Museveni will resign as NRM chairman around 2025 and hand it over to him. Mbabazi will then stand as NRM 2026 candidate, win as they usually do, he will lead for one term (5 years), and then Muhoozi Kainerugaba will take over after him.

Mbabazi cannot be president for so long because he carries some dead weight—he was, for instance, the architect of the Public Management Bill –that is making everyone cry now.

Here is the wrinkle: Mbabazi is not a minion—he doesn’t just follow orders, and he may want to create his own base again. However, it will be a calculated risk to have him take over from Museveni before Muhoozi, but what if he enjoys the ‘chair’ and tries to hang on.

I can also see a few NRM ‘insiders’ opposing the new changes but I’m sure they will be dealt with. The worst is yet to come, and those who will oppose the new changes will get the short end of the stick. The bleeding will stop when all factions in the first family agree to one future candidate.

MUHOOZI

Win over the military and you are practically halfway to the presidency. Muhoozi is strategically halfway there. Nevertheless, he is not really a chip off the old bloke – he is allegedly not a good listener, he loves the bottle, he has a temper and is very revengeful. Nevertheless, whether we like it or not, all signs are that his name is not Muhoozi anymore – he’s the future of Uganda.

SALIM SALEH

Gen. Salim Saleh has slid into his job as a wealth creation boss, as a new glove. He is another possibility to take over from the brother, though he doesn’t look so interested in the presidency.

GEN. KAYIHURA

I can see Gen. Kayihura bouncing back in some role either in cabinet or something else. I’m sure he still feels that he has a role to play in Uganda’s politics. Julius Caesar used to forgive traitors, because he believed that an enemy could be useful if he could be pressured or blackmailed. So, I can see Museveni forgiving Kayihura as requested by voters of Kisoro during the campaigns.

GEN. KATUMBA WAMALA

He is loyal and respected across the political divide. Loyalty, like respect, is earned. I can see him retained in the next cabinet in preparation for something bigger, in case the Mbabazi arrangement does not work out.

NUP OFFICIALS

Succession plans need some oil to drive them home  – they need an opposition to legitimise them. Museveni played the opposition, he threw a bait at them in form of Bobi Wine, and they took it – hook, line, and sinker. To eat a pig, you need to feed it with something. As a result, the opposition is at its weakest, and this is the time to recruit more from them. Therefore, he is so likely to give a few posts to some in oppositions, particularly in NUP, on the account of reaching out to the opposition. Sometimes in politics, you have to make unpalatable comprises. Secondly, Museveni’s reputation has hit rock-bottom. So, having a few oppositionists in his cabinet gets him better optics.

He will also try to reach out to those in FDC, if he hasn’t already done so, but I can’t see many accepting to work with him. Those guys have stone walled hearts aka ‘emitima gyakaluba’.

If Besigye was a normal politician, he would consider rejoining the government , but I believe he won’t – he is uncorrupted and incorruptible. However, his name was so soiled by Bobi’s camp such that it will be difficult for him to rebuild the support base he had before. Negative publicity makes any politician vulnerable and desperate, but I can see Besigye soldiering on, even if it means standing alone against Museveni.

Besigye and the way forward for the opposition

This man is a hero, and nobody has yet managed to fill his boots. During his purple patch in the last 15 years, he was almost singlehandedly keeping the opposition shining and rejuvenated every after elections. I could wake up in the morning, and get hit by a video of a Besigye in a scuffle with the police — he never waited for anybody to join him — he just carried on with his stuff whether people joined in or not. Some novices attacked him between 2018 and 2020 but, I guess, People are so fickle and quick to forget.

A glaring flaw to the current leaders of opposition is what we warned them about before the 2021 campaigns — that it would be difficult to give Ugandans hope again after the elections, if opposition did not build on what they already had, instead of bringing down Besigye and other oldies.

In fact, If I had powers right now, I would be forcing all NUP elected and non-elected leaders to pay their allegiance to Besigye and FDC. There was no point in reviving an old, cobwebbed party that had been on shelves since 2004, instead of strengthening FDC. Anyway, “what-ifs ” will only drive us crazy, but a lot of crap went on in the opposition, and it stank so much ( byawunya nyo).

Moving forward:1.NUP and FDC should work together. Bobi should become NUP’s national mobiliser. The position of president should go to someone else with better leadership skills and experience in multipartism. I’m glad they are writing a new party constitution under the guidance of Hon.Seggona– it should fix that problem. I have a preferred name for the new NUP party presidency though he attacked and unfriended me during the campaigns. Anyway, most of the comments from Bobi’s supporters were overly aggressive, and I hope they have learnt something.
2. All political parties should go for retreats. I think FDC is having one soon, too. Then, there should be a mother conference of all opposition political players — hopefully, the government won’t interfere with it.
3. Dialogue with Mr. Museveni should not be ruled out, for reasons I will explain another time, God willing.
4. Online Fake News experts should be isolated.
5. All opposition parties should support brother Ibrahim Nganda Ssemujju for speakership. It does not matter if he’s going to lose, or miraculously win. It’s a starting point for unity– win or lose together.

USA is simply blackmailing Museveni!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

I like Americans and their foreign policy. They usually try to appease even those they do not support. Now, look at these visa restrictions—they know that putting visa restrictions on Mr.Museveni, his family or anybody close to him, is tantamount to ending any US corporation with Museveni – the one agent America relies on in sub-Saharan Africa. So, I am sure they must have called Museveni to ask him if he had any big shots he could sacrifice for this symbolic purpose. And I suspect the conversation went along the following lines:

USA caller: Your excellency, sir, we have to show the world that we mean what we said during Uganda’s elections. So, we are thinking ‘visa restrictions on those believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic process in Uganda’

Museveni: But I genuinely won this time. That Kyagulanyi was voted for in the central by his tribemates, and we didn’t interfere with him at all. We only came in during the campaigns when he was trying to spread Covid with his many big crowds – I’m sure you can understand that, cant you?

USA caller: Mr. President, sir,… With due respect, a lot of people were killed in November 2020, and this is something we cannot be seen to be ignoring.

Museveni: Those hooligans wanted to burn buildings in Kampala – they were even throwing stones at my soldiers and police. If we had not acted quickly to put some of them down, Uganda would have been taken back, like, 100 years. So, its good we acted quickly, and we should be appreciated.

USA caller: OK, granted, but we still need to talk about the visa restrictions. Is there someone you think would be willing to sacrifice themselves for this cause?

Museveni: I hate sacrificing my cadres, especially the good ones, but I’m thinking Ofwono Opondo and Enanga – those ones don’t need to travel.

USA caller: Those are ok but aren’t big dogs. We are thinking Chief Justice owinyi Dollo and EC chairman Byabakama , what do you say,sir?

Museveni: Oh! I didn’t know that Dollo looked big to you. I will speak to them, both, before you make your announcements, but we must continue with our dialogue on different issues, other than elections.

USA caller: Thank you, excellency, especially for your understanding.

Personally, I think the Americans are blackmailing Museveni over some of his dealings with the Chinese and North Koreans – they aren’t happy with him. And if he doesn’t sort it out, he will continue getting problems from them. For instance, When George Bush Senior was head of the CIA, Noriega of Panama, pretended to be an enemy of the Russians – so the US would ignore all his excesses, particularly his involvement as a drug trafficker. Noriega realized he could make money shipping the drugs, by siding with the communists, and that is when the US invaded Panama.

Similarly, China is a serious thing on US radar, and a very tricky thing for all dictators in Africa. That said, I don’t expect the Americans to engineer a removal of Museveni from power when they don’t have another intelligent ‘agent’ to take over. History has taught USA a lesson – never to get involved in conflicts without a winning strategy.

Uganda opposition is in a crisis!

Nothing has really changed in Uganda ‘s politics since 2016, apart from some inexperienced players. Unfortunately, some Ugandans are displacing their anger over Museveni onto Dr. Kiiza Besigye, and that’s not right.

Yes, with increased use of social media among Ugandans, a lot of state orchestrated crimes are being exposed, compared in the past, but nothing is happening now that hadn’t happened before.  Immediately, after the 2016 elections, Museveni did a clean-up, as he usually does, and as a result several Besigye supporters ended up in prison and safe houses. Over 400 were allegedly arrested. Besigye was the first politician to become a regular customer of the ” drone “– this so-called ‘drone’ isn’t a new thing in our politics, but social media has exposed it more.

Similarly, Bobi and NUP’s branches and roots are, unsurprisingly, being cut off by the regime. A lot of NUP MPs are candidates for recruitment, not defection— yes, they will remain NUP but working for the state. The campaign for parliamentary speakership may give you a hint of what I’m talking about. A lot of opposition MPs have decided to work with the big fish– the one that could eat the weaker ones.

It has also been alleged that the guys being picked up by the ” drones” were reported by their own colleagues in NUP– the police are not blindly picking whoever supports Bobi. Most of these young boys were ignorantly making a lot of seditious statements during the campaigns, and I really feel for them, because most are new to acceptable ways of public activism.

Basically, there’s a bona-fide crisis in the opposition right now, and it seems a lot of players have given up on the struggle. That’s why there’s now talk of Bobi Wine going back to parliament through the back door, because he’s unbelievably fading at a speed. The moment a leader still in opposition start believing in his own power, it means he’s on his way down. His next step will be about his survival, not the survival of the struggle.

Bobi is, arguably, more hated among the opposition than in NRM. Enemies from opposition do not do anything good. A leader should do everything possible to turn them into partners, and this should have started during campaigns. Guys, like, Kato Lubwama, Lubega Makaku, Mugati gwa butter, e.tc, are clearly bitter over wrong decisions made during the campaigns by NUP leaders.

FDC seems to be doing well after distancing itself from most of its bad apples– those leaders that were fighting the party from within.  Sometimes, to save a rotting plant, you have got to cut off all the diseased parts and leave the healthy sections.  FDC almost has the same number of MPs it has always had, but I think they should now strategize more– let them identify a few people in NUP they can work with. Besigye should also come back to save the situation.

WHAT IS BESIGYE’S PLAN B?

Besigye’s Plan B is you and me. Plan B is a process of you and me working together to change Uganda for the better. Plan B is about empowering Ugandans, regardless of their political affiliations. Plan B was about uniting all forces willing to change Uganda for the better. Unfortunately, that plan B was sabotaged by Bobi Wine and his supporters, as I have explained in several of my articles. Coincidentally, those who sabotaged it are the very people asking for Plan B now.

NUP Propaganda upset a lot of people– it pushed everyone into their corner. Bobi’s presidential ambitions divided the opposition– divided the fighting forces. Until something more than mere words– encouraging unity, is done, opposition will not work together. Defiance activists in FDC and DP are so demotivated at the moment.

Words, just like actions, have consequences. I warned my NUP friends about: insults, calling people moles, oldies, e.t.c, but they did not listen. I had envisaged this very situation after elections. ” Jealousy” is one of the nouns that have been adopted by Bobi’s supporters to silence debates on him– whoever criticises him, he is jealousy.

Leaders should always be careful with their public statements

Professor Yusuf Lule

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

Over and over, we have seen a Muganda whom God raises up, gets us excited but we never seem to move anywhere.  The only difference now is the diffusion of information and social media. One figure that rose in 1979 after the removal of Idi Amin, was Professor Yusuf Lule — he had it all: the good looks women voters yawn for, the education that gets the elites behind you, the support of his tribe, and most importantly, the support of the donors, particularly, the British. He had a true personality cult that no one had had in Buganda since Kabaka Mutessa 11.

He was the second Muganda to become president through back door deals negotiated by the British– he didn’t become one because of elections. When he arrived in Tanzania in 1979 for the Mosh conference, not even Obote knew why he was there in the first place. But Nyerere had received instructions from London to make sure that Lule becomes president.

Binaisa (R) with Yusuf Lule on the left who had introduced a bank for Africans in 1959

Unfortunately, Lule did not last long. He made a Luganda statement, that probably didnt mean anything, as soon as he was sworn in,” kyemwayagaliza embazi…….”, and it was portrayed by his opponents as a typical promotion of Buganda nationalism instead of Uganda nationalism.

These are historical precedents for what we’re living through. Someone becomes a leader but get careless with their tongues. Careless statements against westerners and Banyarwanda, appeal to people who don’t like Museveni and Besigye, but they end up isolating Baganda. Statements against past and present leaders do a lot of damage.

Terms now, like ” twababuka “, ” twebelelemu “, e.t.c, mean well in Luganda, but could easily be misinterpreted by non- Baganda. May be, we need a special committee of experts to help with designing a leader’s way of communication.

When leaders feel too much love coming from their backyard, they lose their way. For instance, Trump in 2016 said “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters”. Ya well, some Americans were making notes, and later used it against him.

Finally, Lule knew how to get power but he did not know how consolidate power. As a result, he only lasted 68 days in office before he was removed.  He tried to come back to Uganda to stand in the 1980 elections, but then DP leader, Paul Ssemogerere and others, worked with Paul Muwanga of UPC, to ensure that he’s locked out. I don’t know what Ssemogerere expected to get out of the elections, but here we are– the interest in elections and press conferences continue, and these days, we even do them on facebook– it makes us feel important, doesn’t it? The supporters even watch out for the number of viewers and compare them against someone with real power.

There is no doubt that Lule knew how to negotiate himself into power. In 1980s, he had formed his own military wing based in Nairobi. He later joined with Museveni’s PRA to form NRM– he became chairman with Museveni as his vice. He probably would have become president again, for a while, in 1986 if he hadn’t died the year before(1985). Who Knows?

VOTING ISN’T REALLY SO IMPORTANT IN UGANDA

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK

2021 presidential candidates

There is a world of difference between “have to do something” and “must do something.” Right now, there’s nothing that actually requires Ugandans to do everything possible to vote in presidential elections. Interestingly, NUP’s Patricia Ssewungu paid for a plane ticket from the UK to go and vote in Uganda in this year’s elections, and I sheepishly thought, ‘ what a waste ‘!

Voting exacts a cost– in time, effort, lost productivity– with no discernible payoff except perhaps some vague sense of having done your ” civic duty”. As the economist Patricia Funk contends,” a rational individual should abstain from voting.”

If it came to a choice of using election funds to build hospitals, as opposed to holding elections, I would happily skip voting, especially in elections organised by Museveni’s Electoral Commission. The odds that your vote will actually affect the outcome of a given election are very slim.

I could not vote in 1996 because I wasn’t of voting age, but it was exciting to follow rallies, in the same way we used to follow ” Abagishu” dances. 2001 elections found me already out of Uganda, but I don’t think i have missed anything by not voting. I just figure they are going to do what they are going to do. Then after that, I will know what the end result is. Doubtful there is anything I could have done to change the outcome of any of Uganda’s earlier elections– so not going to stress over it.

However, people do continue to vote in elections for several reasons. Perhaps, most of us are just dumb and therefore wrongly believe that our votes will affect the outcome. For instance, after the 2011 elections, Besigye said that elections would never remove Museveni from power, and he urged Ugandans to go for defiance means. He demonstrated how defiance works by participating in the ” walk to work ” protests in the same year. He made it clear that he would only stand again in elections to advance his defiance cause, because, even if, Ugandans vote him in big numbers, Museveni would never relinquish power. Indeed, Besigye stood in the 2016 elections, people voted him in millions, but again, Museveni was declared the winner.

Come 2017, Bobi Wine joined politics– his message was clear, ” we are removing cowboy Museveni from that chair using elections…..”. Suddenly, Ugandans shifted from Besigye’s defiance to hope in elections again. Bobi made quite a dent in the defiance message, especially in the central. ” Babikwase Kyagulanyi ” became a common mantra on social media. Besigye and FDC were being blackmailed, and in the end, Besigye decided not to stand for presidency in the 20- 21 elections.

Ever seen those movies where two cars drive at each at full speed and the first one to avoid a collision is the “loser”. They know one or the other has to avoid the collision but wait until the last possible moment. FDC couldn’t make Bobi’s supporters see things differently, and the vice versa was true. NUP and FDC cars drove at each other throughout the campaigns. In the end, the defiance struggle went into comma up to now. Besigye’s message of,” we are all captives ” fell on deaf ears. Scary thing is that many ” defiance ” activists have been damaged by NUP’s propaganda.

The FDC had the best manifesto in the 2021 elections– it was a professionally researched 70- page document, but the rotten thing is that if the opposition get into government, they often implement something close to what the previous government wanted to do and pat themselves on the back. Several times people vote for change, but things tend to remain the same.

I predicted a lower voter turnout for the 2021 elections. I believe It’s going to get worse in 2026 unless the govt brings in some incentives to vote.  For example, in the old days political parties in USA regularly paid voters $5 or $10, or a keg of whiskey to cast the proper ballot. In the case of an 1890 New Hampshire Congressional race, voters were given live pigs.

NEVER JOKE WITH BAD GUYS–THEY KNOW THEIR GAME!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK
Part of being an adult is accepting things that you wish weren’t true. For a few years now, I have had to accept some things that I don’t like like. That’s why I’m not surprised that Bobi’s going to court has come up with double zeroes. Basically, nothing much has been accomplished by the opposition in the last four years. im having a hard time finding a silver lining in Bobi’s political moves. He has been involved in a presidential election and his moves since, don’t much comport with reality.

Bad guys don’t play by the rules. That’s what makes them bad. A bad man organises an election knowing that you won’t beat him even if you try. He then puts you under house arrest after elections because it’s the right move to make under the circumstances. Then he persuades you( through foreign ambassadors) to go to court to make you feel important. Then he uses the court to humiliate you again because you deserve it– yes, you don’t respect elders, like Kiiza Besigye, who warned you about courts and elections but you never listened. Then finally, you have no choice but to withdraw the presidential petition because it’s the right thing to do. Then you start thinking about your own future, and that is when you start calling him privately to make deals.

A good president can stand up to external pressure. It’s the internal pressure that can wear him down. For instance, Kidnappings are bad but I knew something like that would happen after the elections– it’s part of the post election ‘clean-up’. Winning isn’t enough for bad guys — they like crushing things.

Sometimes bad guys do good things. Yes, Museveni has done a lot of good things and he is never given credit because of poor public relations. Pinochet shut down 33 cocaine labs and arrested 346 drug dealers, and he had them all killed.

With politics and war, the trick is in the timing. Almost everything Museveni does he considers the timing. There’s no way a young Museveni would have posted a picture of a gift car in the middle of a struggle. There’s no way he could have held a birthday openly in the middle of a struggle. Yes, he married his wife, Janet Museveni, in the middle of a struggle but he didn’t advertise it– it breaks down the morale of the fighters who are suffering.

Best way to make a bad story go away is to come up with a better story. There was a bad story going on about kidnappings and prisoners of election, but that was immediately replaced by a discussion on bullet proof cars and billboards in New York, and I was mesmerised by the kind of opposition we have now. Museveni has worked hard to be where he is. You have to be careful with people like that. He is like a villain in a horror movie, like Michael Myers. He always comes back in time to ruin your life. He is capable of setting up the public to support a man who looks to be genuinely opposing him but when he’s remotely controlling him.

Bad guys tend to have eyes and ears in their enemy camps– they are like spider webs. Museveni has listening posts in FDC,DP, UPC and NUP, and I can bet he even knew about the petition withdrawal before we did. The country is now like the Soviet Union with some sunshine instead of winter.

Negotiate with your enemy while trying to weaken him at the same time. That is going to be his next step. He will send emissaries, if he hasn’t already done so, to get some elements in opposition to work with him. There’s a NUP case in court where original owners want it back–that should be enough for leverage in negotiations.

As for Bobi, he was like a storm, and almost everyone was floating in his awake–some of us more than others. Some even became pretentious that the political status quo has changed, simply because Bobi was a regular on CNN, Aljazeera, BBC and other international channels. Yes, for Bobi– it was a step up- it made him famous internationally but it also exposed his inadequacies. The debate on social media moved from policies, or where we want Uganda to be, to Bobi himself, and it was sad to watch.
Now people are urging him to try again in 2026, as Besigye has tried since 2001. However, waiting in politics is lethal. Those who wait are quietly replaced. It’s like long distance relationships– a lot can happen in 5 years. I even don’t know how Besigye managed it for so long– he kept the opposition rejuvenated every after election. Now, our friends in NUP are ineffectively trying it, too, with a US owned ship(emeeri) in Mombasa ready to attack Museveni–it sounds like grandiose to me.

How Bobi’s investment in outrage paid off and made him look great!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK

Most Ugandans are terrible risk assessors, and I think it’s wrong to think that Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine has contributed so mightily to the Uganda opposition than FDC’s Kiiza Besigye or DP’s Paul Ssemogerere. This belief was mainly coined by those that designed his campaign and it had a grass root effect among voters. Bobi’s handlers designed the campaign around reshaping his public image as bigger than Besigye, and causing outrage among the population than speaking about issues, and it was effective. Everywhere Bobi went, he could sing and dance to his songs (without a mask), and then sing: ‘Museveni wants to kill me’, Museveni is old and not a leader of our generation’—no serious policy was sold whatsoever.

Peter Sandman, a self-described ‘‘risk communications consultant’’ in Princeton, New Jersey, told the New York Times in 2004, ‘risks that scare people and the risks that kill people are very different.’’ For instance, talking about a bad road in an election campaign doesn’t bring out outrage among the people yet the sight of teargas or sound of bullets being fired— does. Just mere talks about the failures of Museveni don’t inspire outrage. This is due in part to the familiarity factor—people had seen previous opposition leaders talk about them, and it wasn’t something unusual anymore.

Sandman reduced it to a simple equation: Risk= hazard+ outrage. He conceded that outrage and hazard do not carry the same weight in his risk equation. ‘When hazard is high and outrage is low, people underreact,’ he said. ‘’And when hazard is low and outrage is high, they overact.’’ So, Bobi’s team understood this well and invested in it.

FDC’s Patrick Amuriat(POA)  was arrested 13 times during the 2021 campaigns while Bobi was arrested only three times, but because there were fewer soldiers and bullets fired during POA’s arrests, less outrage was created, and therefore, less support for the FDC candidate. The thought of Bobi being shot through the chest with a gun is gruesome, dramatic, horrifying—- in a word, outrageous.

For instance, I remember watching a video when Bobi was stopped from campaigning in my childhood neighborhood of Kayunga, Bugerere: one of his police guards was, reportedly, shot in the head, and another member of his campaign team shot in the mouth with a rubber bullet. The video was made with an intensified sound at the point of the explosion being set off, such that it almost seemed like a direct assassination of the presidential candidate himself. I remember waking up to several YouTube and Whatsapp messages of ‘Bobi survives death today’, and I thought, ‘hope this isn’t true’. To demonstrate the seriousness of the threat, Bobi later put on a bullet proof jacket the rest of the campaigns.

In the interest of fairness, a lot of insiders have revealed that there was a direct threat to Bobi’s life from some foreign elements—they wanted to assassinate him such that they create chaos in the capital city which would have, eventually, led to the fall of the Museveni government. I don’t know how true this is but Museveni was expectedly forced to commit a lot of police and military around Bobi 24/7. As might be expected, all this created bedlam wherever Bobi campaigned, and it made Museveni look like an ogre every time he tried to stop him from campaigning. For Bobi and NUP, this was a remarkable boon.

This was hardly how Museveni wanted the campaigns to go. So, around November 2020, a decision was made to arrest Bobi because he wasn’t following the COVID-19 guidelines—that allow a candidate to only address a crowd of about 200 people. It all backfired on him as more outrage was created especially in the central—riots happened and over 50 were killed.

When all else fails and reason is to no avail–why not cheat by bribing the referee to stop your opponent from boxing you, altogether. As such, the Electoral Commission later passed a resolution stopping the presidential candidates from campaigning in 11 districts due to the surging Covid-19 infections and persistent violation of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) by some political candidates.

At the start of the campaigns, Perhaps Museveni thought the easiest solution was to leave Bobi alone and let him collapse on his own because of his inherent flaws. Perhaps that would stop all the purely partisan based criticism and allow all of us to focus on the real problems. It didn’t work. Propaganda magnified the outrage levels among Ugandans—there was a lot of fake news and live recordings being broadcast by Facebook pages attached to Bobi, and the state found it difficult to control them.

For all anyone who watched everything on social media and was psychologically affected, the message being reinforced was that he had faced more violence than Besigye but, in reality, it’s not true. Nobody in the history of our country has matched what Besigye has been subjected to under Museveni. Besigye is so brave and isn’t held back by fear and intimidation. He was one man who was equal to it, able to take it by the horns, by the rough members of the cross the state hung him on and wrestle it, not to the ground but to glory. Therefore, It is ever so misleading to restrict the idea of greatness or heroism to the merely material, visible and physical representations of it, one’s move from Ghetto to politics, or three years of political involvement.

Every election in Uganda is affiliated with something new or shocking. This is often a response to the some growing scare in which, as Sandman might put it, the outrage outweighs the hazard. The scare in this election was rigging of results. So, Bobi responded to that fear with an app that he knew very well would be controlled by the internet—that is controlled by Museveni.

Guess what? The app didn’t work, the ‘referee’ announced Museveni the winner, Bobi was detained in his house for only 9 days after voting, and it looks like we are moving on to 2026,inishallah!

This is the peaceful way forward for Museveni and Buganda after the 2021 elections

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK,

Thanks to Museveni’s speech after being declared the winner of the 2021 elections, Uganda’s post presidential election is fast turning into a debate on Buganda and all it stands for. But while tribalism and religion have certainly played a part into why some people in the central voted for Robert Kyagulanyi and his party, explanations like these tend to understate the degree to which people want change–Museveni has been around so long.

There is a mood of growing uncertainty about the future of Uganda that will no doubt continue at least until Museveni makes some political moves. Both donors and NRM are anxious to see how things are going to pan out in the next few years. What is clear is that Museveni is probably serving his last term as president of Uganda. He has consolidated power and, as such, for any transition to a new face, it’s going to need his input. People simply need to see a new face at the helm of things, and I believe it will reduce the current tension in the country.

In this period, the emphasis is being put on controlling the leaders of opposition such that there’s no violence in the country after elections. It partly explains why the regime is illegally detaining Kyagulanyi at his house, and continues surveillance on him, Kiiza Besigye and other opposition leaders. It might help to ask a more basic question: what, exactly, is Museveni afraid of? Losing power, presumably. So, let’s help him see things differently such that we maintain peace in our country. After all, he is now an old man– you can’t argue against gravity however much you love power.

A lot of opposition supporters are excited about the MP numbers in their respective parties but the fact is that Political parties are of conspicuously small consequence in the current scheme of things. NRM is still the dominant party with over 300 MPs, which means they can still pass anything in parliament without any help from the opposition. Political parties had fallen out of favour; interest in them is now reviving, and this is progress.

Furthermore, we shouldn’t let political parties regress back to gaining support along ethnic and religious terms, as it was in the early 1960s. A move to the “Left” by Obote, in part aimed at cutting the Baganda down to size and in part to establish a developmental socialism like that evolving in Nkrumah’s Ghana, resulted in the overthrow of the Kabaka. This was followed by the establishment of a one party authoritarian regime, which paved the way to years of civil war and anarchy, leaving little prospect for a peaceful evolution of democratic politics. Obote’s attempt to establish a UPC-based movement/party-state along Ghanaian lines not only failed, it intensified the ethnic, religious, and other cleavages in Uganda. The result of these and similar policies was virtual total economic disruption, which drove ethnic and sectarian opposition underground.

Kyagulanyi’s supporters should stop insulting those who don’t support him. Debates with them are rarely coolheaded. Anyone who tries even casually to disagree with him may be stymied. Their best chance of winning any argument is to engage public’s emotions, for emotion is the enemy of rational argument. And as emotions go, one of them—fear—is the more potent than the rest. NUP supporters should know that Kyagulanyi hasn’t alchemized the opposition– he is basically building on the foundations laid down by Dr.Besigye whom they called a ‘comedian’ and mole.

Moving forward, I think there should be a permanent solution between Buganda and the central government. The government should set up an Odoki-like commission to collect views of Ugandans on matters of governance. The process should, in and of itself, be a deliberate effort to get people to look forward rather than back and to build a common constitutional language. The 1994 Odoki Commission made it clear from the beginning that the information so gathered was to be the foundation for future deliberations over appropriate institutional instruments.

Granting federalism to areas that agitate for it should be enough conciliatory step between Buganda and the central government. Buganda remains in essence what it was in 1962—a ministate. The coming of Kyagulanyi in politics has definitely rekindled Buganda’s political nationalism. With the capital city being in Buganda, Museveni should tread careful in the way he handles his differences with the region. Otherwise, he risks plunging the country into anarchy. He shouldn’t treat Buganda like the way he treated Kasese after the 2016 elections.

Museveni shouldn’t attempt to isolate the Kabaka as a way of punishing the Baganda for not voting for NRM. The colonialists tried it and failed. The most critical event was the attempt by a liberal colonial governor to get rid of the Kabaka rather than dismantle the special position of Buganda as provided for in the Uganda Agreement of 1900. The effort backfired. Most people didn’t vote for Kyagulanyi, the person, or his party, they were protesting something.

Buganda nationalism can be accommodated through federalism. Uganda has a diverse landscape, diverse ethnicity, culture, diverse opinions on everything, diverse means of employment, etc. and federalism is the best way to keep everyone represented. There’s a lot of rural poverty in different parts of the country. There’s a lot of land grabbing in Buganda and Busoga, and I believe such issues could be addressed through federal states.

In short, without an effective working relationship between the central and local government, with effective cadres at all levels, a struggle between countervailing pulls of power will ensue, especially given the likely dynamics described above. Museveni needs to calm down  and engage leaders and people of all levels, including the opposition.

Why there won’t be any mass uprisings after the 2021 elections

Why There Won’t Be Any Mass Uprisings After the 2021 Elections

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

Uganda elections are finished, and the story being played out most dramatically is that Kyagulanyi Sentamu aka Bobi Wine, will be able to do something extra ordinary to remove Museveni from power after supposedly some election rigging, something that FDC’s Kiiza Besigye arguably failed to do in the previous elections. Kyagulanyi, himself, vowed to fix the country’s desperate voting system whether Museveni rigs or not. Before polling day, he produced an app, U-vote, which was supposed to help record and share results from various polling stations to all Ugandans. Unfortunately, people never got a chance to use the app as internet was cut off in the whole country two days to the polls. Most importantly, most Ugandans failed to download the app—those who got lucky and downloaded it, most probably, didn’t know how to use it.

I am now totally convinced that Kyagulanyi’s promise of mass risings after elections will not happen. With him being under some house arrest, as Besigye was after the 2016 elections, people will eventually come to accept the situation as it is and move on—Ugandans do not hang on issues or personalities for so long.

Secondly, Museveni’s idea of cracking down on rioters or protests stems from the ‘broken window theory’(BWT), which was conceived by the criminologists James Wilson and George Kelling. The BWT argues that minor nuisances, if left unchecked, turn into major nuisances: that is, if someone breaks a window and sees it is not fixed immediately, he gets the signal that it’s all right to break the rest of the windows and may be set the building afire too. I believe that many of Museveni’s views and actions are thought through in the hot light of day. He is immensely calculating despite the old age.

So, when riots broke out in November last year after the arrest of Kyagulanyi, Security forces heavy handily dealt with them—they unfortunately shot whatever was moving and shootable. Most of the youths saw what happened, where over 50 people were killed by security forces, and nothing really changed politically, apart from daily arrests of their colleagues, with allegations of some being hunted down and murdered up to now. So, most people are very reluctant to suffer the same fate. Museveni, too, is likely to keep the army on city streets for the next three months.

This is exactly the same reason why I think Besigye’s Plan B no longer involves mass uprising because his reputation as a genuine opposition leader, was soiled by supporters of Kyagulanyi when they ignorantly called him a ‘mole’ (working for Museveni) —  something that has consequently affected his party, FDC, in the general elections. The party has lost to Kyagulanyi’s NUP– its spot as the biggest opposition party in the country. Kyagulanyi’s people did this to sell him without thinking of its long-term repercussions. i.e., dividing the opposition for years to come.

Consequently, most of those that were involved in Uganda protests between 2001 and 2016 are likely not to do so again. They suffered a lot under Besigye but their efforts have been undermined by Kyagulanyi’s supporters. So, they are very reluctant to work together with NUP to oppose Museveni. Basically, think of the first generation of Besigye supporters as the Microsoft millionaires; think of the second generation of young Kyagulanyi supporters as pets.com. A lot of young people (between 30 and 45 years old) have decided that the smaller benefits of opposition aren’t worth the risk. Opposition politics is losing its allure which used to be based on watch my back, I watch yours, let us keep opposition as one force, respect for all fighters and activists, e.t.c. It’s no longer worth being killed for a politician who only craves for weakening other political organisations in the opposition, simply because he wants to make his footprints in the history of Uganda.

A lot of FDC and DP supporters will never support Kyagulanyi for whatever because of the damage he has done to their parties. Actually, some are even happy with Museveni’s huge win over him, rigging or not– the psychological depth of their anger is more readily apparent by their commentary on social media. A naughty child, scolded by his mother for his rudeness, takes his revenge on the toys and objects in his nursery.

Here is another interesting bit, there are people who are now NUP MPs but I know for a fact that they hate Kyagulanyi to the bone.  Now that the elections are over, they are going to cause a lot of headache to him within the party. Such people cannot be involved in riots or protests anymore. They are just waiting to be sworn in as MPs very soon. Their deal with Kyagulanyi is finished till next elections.

Lastly, it’s rare for a Ugandan above 30 years to start fighting the police or army guys over election fraud. Such age group also rarely destroy property in case of protests or riots. Elderly people are not very criminally intent since people mellow out as they get older.

RALLIES IN UGANDA ELECTIONS CAMPAIGNS SHOULD BE STOPPED!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK.
A lot of elders (people above 60 years old) are dying in Uganda now, and the cause of death is COVID-19. I am just wondering why we continue to have rallies in these campaigns. What happened to having a scientific election? People are moving from one place to another spreading the virus. Someone has got to put a stop to this nonsense. It’s like the state has abandoned its primary responsibility, i.e., to protect and serve us all regardless of our statuses, religion and affiliations.
A rally is a super spreader event. In most of the rallies being held now in Uganda, there’s little effort to follow guidelines about social distancing, and use of masks. The communities where these rallies have been taking place are paying the price. Young people get the virus and take it home to their parents or elders.

Unmasked gatherings are likely to spread the virus more than masked gatherings. According to Stanford University economists, President Donald Trump’s campaign rallies have resulted in 30,000 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19, and likely led to more than 700 deaths overall. This was in USA.So, you can imagine what is happening in Uganda where it’s even difficult to get statistics.

I know Uganda has the youngest population in the world, and that means majority of our people will survive the virus. But our elders have been left so exposed, and this is not right at all. Data shows most of those who have sadly died have been older, with underlying health conditions – however, figures show everybody is at risk. According to the Worldometer stats, 1.5 million people globally have died so far from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of December 2020.There are 7.594 billion people in the world. Most of those deaths have occurred in people over the age of 70. It seems children aren’t really affected by this virus. That’s why I think Government should open schools immediately.

A lot of young people I have engaged online over this subject aren’t bothered about COVID-19 at all. They think that banning rallies would be more to do with politics than their health. I guess you have come across the Health Belief model. Essentially its why we never make small changes to our lifestyle until after a significant event has happened to us personally – the smoker who quits after getting lung cancer; the obese person that stops eating fried food after a heart attack etc. Because this virus has a lower death rate than we first thought, our natural arrogance kicks in and we return to feeling omnipotent regardless of the long-term effects COVID creates. Because those risks are so abstract, we choose not to consider their implications.

There are also people that are ignorant to COVID19 and the devastating impact it has on others. We had seven people in Leeds, UK, 13 weeks ago, that were convicted individually for setting up illegal raves. They were fined £10,000.00 each as it is thought they are responsible for rise in cases that we have had. Selfish…especially when they didn’t contract the virus themselves. Politicians, too, that are recklessly spreading COVID-19 in Uganda should be paraded in courts and get punished.

Most people hanging around Bobi Wine are either in their 30s or 40s. Their bodies are so young, which makes them more resistant to the virus. This is not the case with the elders at home who aren’t so lucky. Please, we should stop downplaying the seriousness of this disease in the name of politics. We are losing a lot of useful elders to the disease. You do not need to attend a rally to get Covid. It is a contagious disease. Rallies are like risk factors for the disease– they move it from one district to the other.

Bobi is probably among those ignorantly transporting the virus from one place to the other. I have seen him on late Nasser Ssebagala’s funeral, Sheikh Kalisa’s and Sheikh Muzaata’s, too.He may be asymptomatic but a carrier. Uganda probably didn’t have the virus in most rural areas, and our elders there were safe. But I’m sure we are likely to hear of more deaths of the elderly before and after the elections. most Ugandans in rural areas live a routine life i.e., from gardening to eating food, then visit neighbors, and then sleep. There is less movement in rural areas compared to urban centers or cities.

Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it. Vaccines, for example, train our immune systems to create proteins that fight disease, known as ‘antibodies’, just as would happen when we are exposed to a disease but – crucially – vaccines work without making us sick.

There’s an economic aspect attached to the reasons why the government finally decided to let markets and other businesses operate, despite the pandemic. There is pressure to return to normal. That is why businesses and markets remain open, but rallies must be stopped. Easing restrictions are vital to get the economy going again but its vital social distancing is taken seriously. Covid is testing a lot of economies, and a lot of countries are taking such risks.

When measures are introduced that have huge benefits at the population level but little impact on the individual, people are blinded from the overall positive effect. It’s easy to stop a rally than stopping someone from going to work in Kikuubo and other markets. In any case, the govt has no means of sustaining the livelihood of people. Just a simple posho and beans distribution during lockdown was a headache to almost everyone.  UN-Habitat &WFP (2020) report food price increases of 8 to 10% in East Africa between April 2019 and April 2020, following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fresh produce such as vegetables, meat, and fish recorded the highest increases, driven mainly by shortages related to disruptions in the supply chain. COVID-19 related restrictions obstructed all stages of the food supply chain, including production, distribution, processing, and consumption.

As the country faces both a health and economic crisis, we need to support businesses instead of tying everything to the current politics in the country. We should also encourage our people to adhere to and promote government social distancing guidance, and to restrict people gathering. So, politics aside, I understand why Kiikubo, Nakasero and other markets are open despite Covid-19 epidemic. Most people in Uganda survive on daily hand-to-mouth wages. There is no opportunity to work from home. According to Uganda Bureau of statistics, the informal sector provides 81% and 90% of employment opportunities in urban and rural areas respectively. The poverty situation was made worse by other concurrent crises, such as the desert locust invasions since December 2019.
I feel the initial government reaction was well intentioned but undoubtedly incompetent and counterproductive, but since then the opportunities presented for more power and control have been cynically exploited, we should holistically look on how we are all going to control the spread of the virus. We can no longer leave this to government alone. Opposition leaders should stop holding rallies and dialogue with the govt on other ways of campaigning. Otherwise, we are doomed. Most significantly, the rise in cases correlates with the rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Otherwise, its not worth our people dying over an already rigged election.

For now, Ugandans should listen to Dr. Besigye’s message and concentrate on boosting their natural immunity against the disease,i.e. eat a lot of fruits and vegetables, exercising, and taking Vitamin C supplements.

Steaming also helps and its more helpful to those young ones (below 60) who catch the virus. But it may not be so helpful to the over 60s who get the virus–their bodies tend to have a lot of underlying problems

Face masks and face coverings in public places and public transport are worthwhile. They help limit the wearer spreading large droplets. Certainly, better than no barrier at all. They won’t however prevent the wearer from becoming infected. That’s why social distancing is still crucial even when wearing a mask.

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*Abbey Kibirige  Semuwemba*

Stalk my blog at: https://semuwemba.wordpress.com

“Men in authority will always think that criticism of their policies is dangerous. They will always equate their policies with patriotism, and find criticism subversive.” – Henry Steele Commager 1902-98

‘FAKE NEWS’ IS GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT GOVT OF UGANDA!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK
The state is a microcosm of the nation, and I think one of the biggest challenges facing the next government of Uganda is the control of fake news on the internet. Social media, particularly, has been used to create and disseminate fake news. This has contributed to a dangerous regime of misinformation that has undermined almost everything we stand for in our country. The Internet and social media allow disinformation campaigns to be created immediately through automated accounts, fake profiles, bots or “army of trolls” shared over digital platforms. For instance, for the past three years, I have been personally announced dead three times and it caused a lot of stress to my family members. I have been unfairly linked to pseudo accounts on Facebook by Andrew Mwenda and others, and no law can severely punish such people. All of these actions and actors form an artificially inflated engagement (based on likes, comments, shares), that leads to the necessity to identify and combat the disinformation from a multi-layered perspective.

In the last three years, we have seen an increase in fake news that is intended to boost the image of Hon.Sentamu Kyagulanyi. This was the case during Kenya’s 2017 general elections when the ruling Jubilee party employed Cambridge Analytica, a UK-based public relations company, to boost its electoral prospects. The company was later accused of populating social media and using bots to create and circulate fake news.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not against freedom of expression but the need to balance the protection of individuals from offensive communications with the freedom of expression is important. Whereas individuals should not be allowed to say all they want without any restrictions, the restrictions must be well understood and must serve a purpose that is in the public interest.

Uganda’s Computer Misuse Act is good, but it has its own problems or inadequacies. They either need to review it or come up with a totally new legislation specifically dealing with fake news on social media. This law came under the spotlight recently when the state used its provisions to charge renowned academic, social media activist and government critic Dr. Stella Nyanzi. In one post, she had reportedly referred to the President as a ‘pair of buttocks’ – something that attracted the charge of cyber harassment under section 24 of the Act. Her other posts were met with the charge of ‘offensive communication’ under section 25 of the same Act. On an earlier occasion, section 25 was used to charge Mr. Robert Shaka who was thought to be the person using the account of Tom Voltaire Okwalinga (TVO) on Facebook to critique the president and key government officials. It was also used against Mr. Swaibu Nsamba who posted a photoshopped picture of President Museveni in a coffin to show how he would celebrate the President’s death.

However, Section 25 also violates the right to freedom of expression as it limits the right beyond constitutionally acceptable limitations. The Constitution, in Article 29(1)(a) guarantees freedom of speech and expression, which includes freedom of the press and other media. That’s why I think we clear-cut rules and criteria for bringing down viral fake on social media. The government will also need to start an organisation whose main purpose is to sensitise the public on the impact of spreading fake news.

Some social media giants are trying to control this problem though sometimes they don’t get it right. Digital platforms like Facebook or Twitter, and companies like Google, which owns YouTube, announced a plan of actions they will take to “stop misinformation or false news”. For instance, Facebook launched a tool that will help users “understand and control” the posts they see.

Here in Europe, they have come up with three ways of dealing with this. One is self-regulation, reflecting actions undertaken on a voluntary basis by the digital platforms themselves. The second is the co-regulation approach, focusing on building a cooperation framework between EU-level and national-level authorities, the internet platform companies, media organizations, researchers, and other stakeholders. Thirdly, some EU and non-EU states set up direct regulation (hard legal measures) against disinformation, albeit how they define it may vary significantly across countries. Starting with 2015, the European Commission established “East StratCom Task Force” – a task force addressed to Eastern Partnership countries, such as Ukraine, Georgia or Armenia – that was meant to identify and expose Russia’s disinformation

In 2018, the European Commission announced the creation of the High Level Expert Group on Fake News and Online Disinformation, formed of representatives of news media, academia, and internet platform companies, with the purpose to address and explore digital disinformation, identify solutions to efficient fight the phenomenon, offer regular reports on current state of affairs and recommend possible legal actions necessary to implement.

Some EU Member States, such as Germany, France, and Hungary, and non-EU states, such as Singapore, Russia, or Malaysia, have put in place laws that stipulate fines or imprisonment for publishing and giving content deemed as illegal. They empower state authorities to block websites, social media accounts or remove online unlawful content.

Within the European Union, Germany and France decided to take stricter measures to counter digital disinformation, demand more transparency of the digital platforms, apply monetary sanctions, or even block a foreign state-controlled NetzDG39, broadcaster. The German Network Enforcement Law (2017), also known as “hate speech law” is addressed to issues like “defamation” or “incitement to crime or violence”. The German law obliges digital platforms with at least two million registered users in Germany to remove illegal content within 24 hours and stipulates fines up to EUR 50 mln, if the content is not deleted.

In 2018, a French legislative proposal on the publishing and dissemination of false information during an electoral campaign was enforced. According to the law, an electoral candidate or political party can appeal to a judge to take down a false story or information, within 48 hours. The same law empowers the French broadcasting regulator, the Audio-visual Council, to “block foreign state-controlled broadcasters that publish false information”.

In Hungary, on March 30, 2020, Parliament approved new emergency powers in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing the ruling party to govern by decree indefinitely. Among other measures, the new law targets the spread of misinformation by stipulating up to five years of imprisonment for those accused. The concerns related to this measure reflect the more general criticism of state-driven hard regulations, namely the fact they may open new avenues for abuse of power in deciding what is disinformation, and, so, suppression of free speech under authoritarian regimes.

In 2018, Malaysia introduced Anti Fake-News Act that aims to sanction illegal content by fines or imprisonment. The law was repealed later in October 2019 by the newly appointed government. The legislation defined fake news as “any news, information, data and reports that are whole or partly false whether in the form of features, visuals or audio recordings or in any other form capable of suggesting words or ideas”.

In 2018, the Egyptian government adopted several laws to fight the spread of false information. The law finds as unlawful content “information deemed to threaten national security; disturb the public peace; or promote discrimination, violence, racism”, and empowers authorities to block the access to a blog, website, or social media account.

In China, the criminal law stipulates up to seven years imprisonment for whoever fabricates “false information on dangerous situations, epidemic situation, disaster situation or alert situation”. More recently, in 2019, Chinese government made it illegal to publish video and audio “deep fakes”.

As from March 2019, the Russian parliament passed a “Law on Fake News” that stipulates fines for users of digital platforms and blogs, media outlets, network publications that disseminate “knowingly inaccurate socially significant information” and empowers state authorities to immediately notify the editors of the “network publications” to delete the content, otherwise the access to the website will be blocked.

STRUCTURES HELP BUT RIGGING STILL TAKES PLACE!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK
When I authored the article titled, ‘THIS IS WHY MUSEVENI IS SADLY GOING TO WIN THE 2021 ELECTIONS’, I received a lot of email messages after its publication in the Newvision and other media. A lot of people are now saying that my article is proof that Museveni never rigs elections and that Besigye never won the 2016 elections. Their conclusions are a total misrepresentation of the facts and conclusion in the article.
Ugandans should know that election rigging doesn’t only happen on election day. It’s something the people in power work on over a long period of time. The fact that Museveni controls the Electoral Commission (EC) and the Uganda police and army throughout the campaigns, yet he’s also a candidate, is  part of the election rigging process. It’s no mistake that it was designed that way and he has repulsed all advocations for that to change.

According to the European Union Election Observer Mission, 85% of tally centres didn’t print sub county results by polling station during the 2016 elections. So, it’s possible that those that weren’t printed would have been Besigye’s votes, but I guess we will never know.

Thirdly, during the same election, the EC failed to deliver ballots to several polling stations around the country, and this frustrated voters waiting in queues. Voting materials were delayed in Mbale, Muzimya municipality, Wakiso district, and parts of Kampala. These are areas known to support opposition in almost every election. There is no guarantee that this isn’t going to happen again in this election. The fact is that some Ugandans won’t vote for their candidate come 14th January 2021, and they will be hurt, as Besigye’s supporters were in 2016. And this is purely an excuse for rigging, and you can do nothing about it.

That said, structures would help any political party to do well during an election. It’s one way of going into an election with an assured number of votes—all that the party needs is to make sure that all people leading various party organs are registered to vote. As a result, it wasn’t surprising that of all 112 districts, Besigye won only in 14 after the 2016 elections, yet FDC had some structures in some districts. Besigye’s wins came mainly from Soroti, Pader, Lira, Gulu, Tororo, Mbale, Sironko, Gulu, Amuru, Ngora, Masaka, Kampala and Wakiso. Besigye gained a net increase of 1.2 million votes compared to Museveni’s increase of only 189,134 votes. So, just imagine, FDC had some good structures, which probably explains Besigye’s ability to secure some votes that could have been rigged by a system totally controlled by Museveni. But imagine a popular candidate, as Kyagulanyi Sentamu seemingly is, but his party, NUP, has no recognisable structures on the ground, but he is highly dreaming of winning the election. Seriously?

Even the few structures on the ground by opposition parties are always frustrated by the state. The party in power has a problem respecting and promoting the spirit of multi partism ushered in the year 2005.That’s why a lot of people opt to go independent. As a result, Independent candidates have won more parliamentary seats than any opposition party since 2006.

Local government elections normally follow parliamentary and presidential elections by one week. Because of the advantages of NRM structures, the party won 82 of the 112 district chairperson seats, independents won 17 seats, while FDC and UPC each won 4. FDC won in Gulu and Ngora, and Lukwago retained his office as Lord Mayor. In this election, because of NRM structures, Museveni is mathematically only chasing 1.5 million votes in order to win the election. Even if he ends getting half of it, he will use his powers of incumbency to smoothen things up,i.e. rigging his way in.

Being an incumbent is always an advantage for Museveni and other NRM candidates, as they already have voter recognition and use of state resources to run their offices. They receive more coverage on televisions, radios and public venues. Their national grassroot mobilisation network is unparalleled in Uganda at the moment. Yes, it’s illegal to use government resources to campaign under section 27 of the presidential elections Act(2005) and Section 25 of the Parliamentary Elections Act(2005), but they don’t give a damn—Museveni is the top law in Uganda.

Fear of political upheaval is another advantage that the NRM enjoys.  A lot of people that were old enough during Obote 1, Amin and Obote 2, know what it’s like for the country to be at war. So, Museveni has always taken advantage of their fears. He is actually doing it in this election,too. Whenever Kyagulanyi is arrested, or people following him are killed, many lay observers think that it’s Kyagulanyi benefiting from this situation more than Museveni, but it’s the other way round. However, everyday the opposition is attacked, NRM,too, takes a hit in the long term. That’s why Obote’s UPC and Moi’s KANU are off the shelves at the moment.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyagulanyi suspends his campaigns again and again till when he psychologically gives up. Have you heard of the story of the wind and the sun? It basically says that if you want to get a man to take off his coat, you don’t blow it off. You just put him in a room, turn on the heaters, and he will take it off on his own.

The fact is that Museveni wishes to die a president. That’s why when he turned 72 in August 2016, he found a way of manipulating the constitution to remove the age limit on the presidency. He didn’t do this for someone else to take his chair—forget it

—

*Abbey Kibirige  Semuwemba*

Stalk my blog at: https://semuwemba.wordpress.com

“Men in authority will always think that criticism of their policies is dangerous. They will always equate their policies with patriotism, and find criticism subversive.” – Henry Steele Commager 1902-98

This is why Museveni is sadly going to win the 2021 elections

FDC’s Amuriat in Kanungu, western Uganda, today

Museveni is not doing rallies in these elections because of COVID-19 but some in the opposition are attracting large crowds. If there is one thing I have come around to, when it comes to Uganda politics, you never trust crowds following you, or anybody.

A lot of people are wondering why Museveni is so relaxed in these elections compared to the previous elections, and here is the answer: he won the damn thing three years ago, and I’m going to use mainly the 2011 and 2016 elections as my reference points because the former, especially, are kind of very similar to the elections Uganda is having now.

First of all, Museveni realised that he needed to control the number of youths registering for the 2021 elections. Through the Electoral Commission, the Voter registration process closed over a year before the election date – between 21 November and 11 December 2019. So many youths never registered. There was only an increase of 2 million registered voters between the 2016 elections and now– something that could, arguably, be put down to high population increase in Uganda. Yes, youths make up 67% of the 2021 voter’s registrar compared to 44% in 2016, but not all youths support youthful candidates in elections. Actually, I think a big chunk of the youths’ vote is going to be shared across by all candidates, including Museveni himself.

In 2016, Voter turnout was 67.61 %. Total votes cast were 10,329,131. The number of people that registered to vote were 15,277,198. The number of people that fell in the voting age population was 17,110,660 out of the 38,319,241. The % of invalid votes was 4.90 %. Basically, not everyone who registered votes on the election day. Actual turnout in 2011 was just below 60%.

Secondly, I think Museveni has always had an advantage over his opponents because of NRM structures, which are literally fused with the state. Before even voting started in the 2011 elections, NRM had already secured 2,118,780 million votes as it set up 30 people per village heading their committees. Uganda has over 70,000 villages. Access to the state’s local council system as well as its own network down to the villages provided the NRM with an unrivalled grassroots presence. These networks represented a unique vehicle for NRM voter mobilization, dissemination of campaign messages, as well dispensation of patronage. In mid-2010, NRM embarked on a massive membership drive, securing a reported 9 million members, an effort that was followed by universal suffrage elections for NRM ‘‘office bearers’’ and then primaries for ‘‘flag bearers’’ from the village level up.

Similarly, in these elections, NRM reportedly handed in about 5 million signatures to back the candidature of President Museveni, which translates to approximately 30% of the voters. This means that Museveni only needs about 4 million voters more to clinch the presidency again. Let us remember that NRM already has the 2 million votes through their village structures. Even If only a half of those turn up to vote, it means Museveni will be chasing only 3 million votes during the campaigns. Furthermore, NRM also has 11 members of the youth league and 11 members of the main league per village, which mathematically translates to 1.5 million voters. If all these youths are loyal and turn up to vote, it means Museveni is mathematically chasing only about 1.5 million voters in the campaigns.

The fusion between state and party has moreover subsisted at the village level, as LC1s (village councils) were last elected in 2001 under the Movement system. LC1 chairpersons have significant influence in local communities, and this is what prompted the government’s decision in December 2010 to provide each with an unprecedented 150,000 UGX and a bicycle. As someone who has lived in rural areas before, bicycles mean a lot to people in villages and it’s a source of pride.

Thirdly, apart from FDC’s Amuriat, Mugisha Muntu and Joseph Kabuleta, I have not seen other candidates campaigning based on real issues, yet Museveni does his research very well before stepping in any region. He makes promises even those he knows that he will not be able to fulfil, but he knows people like hoping for things. Not only did Museveni usher in 32 new districts since 2006, but also he promised to create over a dozen new ones in the 2011 campaign, often stating that he was doing so in response to demands from the electorate. Teso, the region which most distinctly moved to the FDC in 2006, was singled out for special treatment as Museveni promised to create a Ministry for Teso if it reverted to the NRM. In this campaign, he also making similar promises and some people seem to be buying them.

At the end of the 2011 elections, not only did Museveni win in most regions in the country, but he won in Buganda where he was least expected to do so. Let us remember that we had had riots in 2009, just two years to the elections, where at least 40 people and over 500 were arrested. The authorities shut down CBS, the kingdom’s radio station, for more than a year. A few weeks before Election Day, parliament voted the Cultural and Traditional Leaders’ Bill that reinforces the outreach of Article 246 of the constitution.

Similarly, we have had riots in this election and some people envisage that Museveni is going to lose in Buganda, but I would not bet on it. First, there is a lot of disunity among the opposition especially here in Buganda. You find one constituency with 5 opposition candidates standing against one NRM, and this will only increase the chances of NRM dominance in the central again. Most of those that belonged to the ‘Suubi’ group in 2011 are now in either NUP or FDC, and I believe they will come back to parliament, but they are not as united against Museveni as they were in the past. We have ‘friendly fire’ in the opposition ever since NUP’s Kyagulanyi came on to the scene as a politician, and that has only benefitted one man—Museveni. As a result, the opposition was scared as I watched Bobi tank the FDC and later DP, and nobody could do anything about it.

Yes, Museveni definitely rigs elections but he’s also helped by the NRM structures one way or the other. If you don’t have structures on the ground, you don’t control the electoral system, and the military, forget about becoming a president of Uganda through elections. It’s a pipe dream, unfortunately. Maybe things will change in the future, but for now, I’m just waiting for 14th January to witness another Museveni presidency, God willing.

I dont idolise Besigye at all!

Defense of Dr.Kiiza Besigye has nothing to do with a ‘cult of personality’ and everything to do with the fact that the FDC feels itself to be under attack from both the opposition and NRM. I don’t idolize him; I think there’s plenty of fair criticism I can level at him for missing open goals.e.g changing from walk-to-work to hooting.

Amuriat and Besigye

A good start towards uniting the opposition would be an acknowledgement that Besigye, in the previous elections, came closer to achieving power than any leader in the opposition— some people, like Gen.Sejjusa David, are on record saying that he won both the 2006 and 2016 elections. He should now be regarded as an elder statesman and valued for his influence on thinking within the opposition.

The persistent attempts to misrepresent him, his words and his ideas, to trash his legacy and to consign him to history as ineffectual, incompetent, self-seeking and pro-Museveni are not only an offence to the man himself, but also to the whole of the FDC and to natural justice. He shouldn’t be called a mole simply because some of you want to sell your candidates: that particular assumption would fly in the face of the available evidence– I am talking about how much he has suffered in the name of opposing president Museveni, including losing his own brother, Joseph Musasizi Kifefe, who died while in prison on November 29th 2007.

We have power that we are refusing to see, because some Ugandans have clawed all dissent into a safe manageable bubble—thinking in terms of tribes, camps, ‘nfunilamuwa’, e.t.c.

After the 2021 elections, God willing, all opposition camps should sit down and evaluate themselves. Personally, I think Besigye will be most needed to rejuvenate the opposition again. Not restoring the whip to Besigye has basically hamstrung the main effective voice in the opposition (or at least one they are most afraid of). For now, I am appealing to Besigye to join POA’s campaign team, for the sake of keeping plan A alive.

POA remains the dark horse in the 2021 presidential race

POA meeting the Katikilo of Buganda this month

By Abbey  Kibirige  Semuwemba

It’s remarkable to think Engineer Patrick Oboi Amuriat(POA) has only been FDC president for three years– such is the impression he has already made at Najjanankumbi. He is certainly doing a good job under extremely difficult circumstances. Yes, FDC lost some MPs to Mugisha Muntu’s ANT, but I understand the nationwide party membership has gone up under his leadership. His popularity is up to almost double Muntu’s. Party popularity is up, during a national crisis, though they have had some set back with the rejuvenation of NUP(a party founded at the same time as FDC in 2004). So, everything has been onward and upward.

Campaigning for presidency without shoes in his feet tells its own story but allied to that humble character has been an air of authority during FDC meetings and a charming presence off it. The Campaign pictures showing him laughing and joking while eating food with the locals, is not something we have seen before in any presidential candidate. At some point, he was shown buying a ” kicommando “(Uganda chapati with flied eggs wrapped inside it), after the police had teargassed him and his supporters, and stopped him from holding a rally. POA is like a dark horse in this race, but progressing so well. Like I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if his party increases the number of MPs in the forthcoming parliament. I could also see him finishing second, obviously, after the incumbent, Mr.Museveni—the first spot has its permanent owner.

Indeed, a fly on the wall has already hinted to me the results are already out and ready for Byamukama’s reading next year,’ the elections will go on as scheduled. The predetermined results: 53%, 37%(Bobi), others 10%’, but I will go with my projections,i.e. POA will finish 2nd after Museveni.

Museveni may be old but his guerrilla tactics are still effective!

I may be wrong about this, but I do not think that was a NUP supporter pouncing on a female police officer putting out fire in the middle of the road. This was risky for anybody to do however upset one was about the arrest of Bobi Wine. Putting on red put one in a crossfire from the security agents on that day, just as yellow made one a target by NUP supporters. So, it would not make sense for one to openly attack a policeman knowing very well that one could be shot any second.

Secondly, NRM/A have been known since the bush days to dress in the same way as the enemy to commit atrocities. They reportedly used to dress in UNLA uniforms, commit atrocities, and it would be blamed on Obote’s government. So, we cannot really be sure that those that reportedly committed atrocities during the last two days of riots belonged to the opposition till we see them found guilty and put away in prison.

I have also seen pictures of gun wielding men and women in plain clothes on streets of Kampala, apparently keeping law and order. This is again a clever tactic that helps Museveni to quarry away the protests in the most sophisticated way possible. First, when you are dressed like that (without a recognizable uniform or identity card), it is easy to commit an atrocity in front of a camera, and then its blamed on the rioters or protesters. It is also another way of infiltrating the protesters. All you need is to hide your gun and lead them into an ambush. All you need is to camouflage yourself so effectively that the enemy does not notice you approaching. And in case of danger, it becomes easy to gel in—all you need is to hide the gun somewhere and join the protesters.

These are basically part of the guerrilla tactics NRA used in its fight against Obote, and they are still effective against Bobi Wine’s ‘Rabada-gheto’ style. As Major Kenneth Ruhinda once said, ‘‘Guerrillas don’t die easily. We used guerrilla tactics way of fighting. You just go and snipe at one soldier who is on sentry meeting and then you disappear into the forest for a week. Just kill one. But then he demoralizes the rest. Somebody who has gone to fetch water from the borehole, you aim at him, shoot him, and then you disappear. These are guerrilla tactics of fighting. So that your job is to reduce the numbers of the enemy but to preserve yourself. Preservation of the self is most important in a guerrilla war’’

This is part of the NRA’s guerrilla myth, which has its roots in the classical political writings on guerrilla warfare, for example, by Mao Zedong.

However, I do not understand why Museveni has found it more appealing to make the same mistakes Obote did in the 1980s by openly killing civilians who don’t want him in power anymore. He is basically recruiting for the opposition now and in future—regardless of the fact that none of the opposition leaders is going to be declared president at the end of this electoral process. In the words of Mugishu Muntu, who was later Commander of the NRA, and now in opposition: “The main recruiting officer for NRA was Obote himself.”

On a bright side, FDC and Besigye’s people’s government are on course to drag Museveni into the International Criminal Court, though I think it’s a long way—there’s a lot of legal rigmarole involved.

Moving forward, opposition should sit down together and work out both short and long term plans on how to get power. None of them is prepared for the 2021 elections—sometimes people think they’re prepared but they’re not.

THIS WAS POSTED ON MY FACEBOOK PAGE ON 8TH NOVEMBER 2019

THIS WAS POSTED ON MY FACEBOOK PAGE ON 8TH NOVEMBER 2019
By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

I come in peace today, especially because this is my happy hour. I’m basically asking you to take off your People Power hat for a minute, and put on your “patriot” hat.
1.This ongoing propaganda against Dr.Kiiza Besigye, particularly, calling him a “comedian” or ” mole” working for Museveni, should stop. What you’re doing is benefitting Bobi Wine in the short term, but damaging to the opposition in general, and you are rationalizing the obscene into the palatable. Besigye is clearly dedicated to the cause, he’s relentless and he’s exceptionally fearless. I know you love a bandwagon but this is Besigye we are talking about. People found it hard to use such propaganda in 2016 because Amama Mbabazi, who was, and probably still is, closer to Museveni, was in the race. But it’s convenient now for obvious reasons.

2.Museveni’s doing everything possible to shred the youths vote in pieces .With a 40 year old Bobi possibly standing for presidency in 2021, this is what Museveni is going to do, to cut through the youths vote. Somebody younger, or in the same age bracket as Bobi, is going to be handpicked by Museveni to run as another independent opposition candidate. Youths groups backing him and the incumbent will be formed, and will be well facilitated. S/he will come out hard against Museveni and somehow steal Bobi’s thunder. S/ he won’t flip- flop in the middle of the elections – as the intention is to distract the youths. My biggest concern is the time we are wasting on an election that has already been rigged.

3. Presidential elections in Uganda mean nothing anymore- it’s just a chance for Museveni to show the might of his power to his opponents- it’s a game for him where the winner is already known before even play starts.Therefore, I appeal to Bobi Wine not to stand in the presidential race 2021. We want him to remain MP for now, gain more experience, and help a lot of opposition ladies and gents get elected. Museveni is going to rip him apart before and after the elections, if he goes ahead to stand. He can make a lasting difference in parliament, and work with Besigye. My motivations may seem atrocious, since I have always favoured Besigye for the presidency, but my logic is sound. Bobi shouldn’t let ambition cloud his judgement- he isn’t the only one in Uganda who wants to become president.

This is the best part- I have no idea if Besigye will stand again though I strongly believe that he won’t. There are a lot of variables involved before one announces their interest in the presidency. What I know is that this is the time for only men and women who oppose Museveni ,with presidential ambition as a by the way- legacy is their only goal. It’s not for men who stand for the presidency because they promised their spouses that they would be first ladies one day( Again, I mean that in a non- combative way).

FDC’s Amuriat may end up doing better than Bobi Wine!

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba, UK
Engineer Patrick Amuriat may end up pulling more votes than Kyagulanyi Sentamu aka Bobi Wine at the end of this electoral process. People in the North and East still live as communities– their leaders still command respect. If an MP in the North tells his people to vote for POA, they will do so, unlike here in the central. Most MPs in central Uganda are totally disconnected from the voters– voters don’t respect them that much and rarely listen to them. In otherworld, MPs in the central are not as powerful as MPs in other areas. For instance, a Beti Nambooze is not as powerful as Hon. Nandalla Mafabi in Bugishu. MPs used to be products of cooperative societies, and that made them powerful– one of the reasons the Museveni government is reluctant to restore cooperatives.

If POA gets votes in the North and East, then he could end up being a surprise number two in Feb 2021. I have never seen the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) so organised, determined and pumped up, as they are now. Their grassroot structures seem to be breathing. They have paid nomination fees for all their parliamentary candidates. They have nominated more MPs than ever before (over 300 were nominated), and they are training them.  They are printing posters for all their candidates. FDC is operating like a party in a developed country, thanks to the current leadership. I understand Dr. Kiiza Besigye is trying to avoid taking sides in this election but he has to come out and start moving with Amuriat throughout the elections.The party needs him badly!

All serious political parties should have presidential candidates in this election, because this election is more about party promotion than winning the presidency. FDC is16 years old, as old as the National Unity Platform (NUP). The latter is also in this election to promote itself, not to win the presidency. Furthermore, I believe that FDC is not using this election as ammunition against Bobi and his NUP but as a way of making sure that the party is not further weakened by Bobi and his NUP. Nobody is in this presidential election to beat Museveni, I think. Strong arming FDC to support a NUP presidential candidate did not work, and will not work now, basically because Bobi is not a good negotiator. Apart from JEEMA, I do not see any other party willing to back him for the presidency.

Bobi’s selling point was youthfulness, but his party did badly in the youth elections this year. NRM won by over 80% of the national vote.  NUP and FDC got 2% each, UPC and DP 1% each while independents got 15%. However, NUP and FDC had a majority vote in Masaka and Rukungiri respectively. Basically, Let me put it this way, even if all parties don’t front candidates and leave only NUP to do so , Kyagulanyi will not win against Museveni, or rather he won’t be declared the winner of the presidential election. There’s a lot of puffery on Bobi, especially on social media, but when actually he isn’t as strong as he’s portrayed.

Sometimes the best way to deal with the disappointment in one arena is to accomplish something else. If FDC cannot remove an old M7 from power through elections, there is nothing wrong with strengthening their position as a political party. The alternative is to let the party fall apart because it seemingly failed one singular assignment– an assignment no party will accomplish, anyway. NRM had only nine unopposed MPs in the 2016 elections and only seven this time—that means that FDC and other opposition parties are getting more organised and confident with Multi-party politics. Let every party promote itself and we see our things pan out in future.

Vote Katinti for Kyadondo East MP!

Former Kyadondo East Member of Parliament Apollo Katinti was committed back to Luzira civil prison in 2019 for failure to pay 108 million to Honor Sitenda Sebalu as cost resulting from the election petition appeal.  

Sacrifice is where you risk everything with no guarantee. Mr. Katinti has done so in several ways. He was run off the road in 2017 when NRM’s Sitenda Sebalu won a court case against hom which led to a by-election that Bobi won. Im sure that must have been painful for him– he spent all that money on lawyers only for someone else to benefit from his sweat. Anyway, the heart wants what the heart wants— Katinti is back standing against brother Muwada ( yes, he’s a brother in Islam), and others, but I think he deserves a chance to reclaim what he lost through courts.

Vote Erias Lukwago for Lord Mayor, Kampala

Erias Lukwago (born 11 May 1970), is a Ugandan lawyer and politician. He is the Lord Mayor of the city of Kampala, the capital of Uganda and the largest metropolitan area in the country. He was elected to that position on 14 January 2011.

There’s a difference between being a winner and leader. With Brother Erias Lukwago, he’s both. Unfortunately, the state has never given him a chance to enjoy his position as Lord Mayor of Kampala– everyday is a knife fight in a prison yard for him. Now, its not only the state fighting him, but also some seemingly in opposition. But, guess what? He has got teeth coming everyone’s way. The people of Kampala just have to help him dig deeper.